Source: Nepali Times
COP29 in another petrostate does not offer much hope in reducing climate harm. We are on our own.
It is that time of the year again, and another annual climate jamboree. Last year it was in the UAE, this year it is in another petrostate, Azerbaijan.
On the eve of the summit, the president of COP29 was exposed in a sting operation by World Witness while giving leads to a fake financier for fossil fuel projects in Azerbaijan. Like Dubai last year, this is another jumbo gathering with nearly 67,000 delegates. That is a large carbon footprint.
Even so, global climate negotiations are of critical importance, particularly to build a stronger case for Loss & Damage (L&D) and adaptation for countries like Nepal which are at the frontlines of climate breakdown.
Baku is billed as the ‘Finance COP’ and an agreement was signed for full operationalisation of the L&D Fund to disburse money starting next year. On 13 November, Nepal also organised a prominent event in Baku to address loss and damage in mountain areas.
COP29 is also mandated to come up with a new roadmap to mobilise $100 billion every year to developing countries by the end in 2025, as agreed ten years ago in Paris. But much water has flowed down the Seine since then, and there is bickering between rich and poor countries on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). Who is going to fund the additional $671 billion annually for loss and damage, and $2.4 trillion a year by 2030 to meet emission targets?
The hardcore negotiations will not take place till the L&D Fund board meet in Manila next month. But there are lots of things to iron out first to garner necessary political will in Baku. Who is going to pay, how much, is it going to be part of already committed development aid or is it new money, and besides, with frequent record-breaking disasters, we may need much more than $100 billion a year by 2030.
Nevertheless, the Nepali adviser to the LDC Chair at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Manjeet Dhakal is optimistic, and told us from Baku that this summit should build momentum to speed up the L&D Fund.
The September floods in central and eastern Nepal claimed 244 lives, and damaged more than a dozen hydropower plants temporarily, slashing domestic generation capacity by half and caused billions of rupees in damage that will take years to recover. The Melamchi disaster in 2021, the Kagbeni flood in 2022 and Thame this year are other recent climate-induced calamities.
The World Weather Attribution concluded that rapid urbanisation and climate change were key drivers behind the September disaster. Evidence such as this will increase Nepal’s case for L&D Funds even though encroachment and quarrying contributed to the destruction.
Climate impact must therefore be addressed simultaneously with urban planning, better governance, with local adaptation and mitigation plans. Nepal has to put its own house in order for its loss and damage claims to have weight at the international table.
Nepal has already exceeded one of its climate goals of increasing forest cover to 45% of area, and recently received Rs1.6 billion from the World Bank for increasing its carbon reserves between 2018-24 by expanding forest cover in 13 Tarai districts. Nepal has also made notable progress in transitioning to clean energy by electrifying transport and cooking. However, electricity is a mere 3.5% of Nepal’s energy mix, with biomass taking a 80% share.
Nepal’s strategy moving forward should be to come up with a new Nationally Determined Contribution aligned with the Paris 1.5°C goal. This also corresponds with the other top priority of COP29, which is to guide countries to submit new 1.5°C aligned NDCs next year.
Even if the L&D Fund does come through, it will be inadequate to fully make up for the harm that is sure to intensify in the coming decade. Even if we did get the money, it is doubtful given the lack of transparency and Nepal’s record of poor disbursement if it will ever get to the neediest people. In other words, we are on our own.
Writing emotionally for this paper in the aftermath of the September floods, climate finance expert Rastraraj Bhandari said, “We in the climate finance sector are lost in words, actions and false promises of organisations purporting to help vulnerable countries, communities and families.”
Echoing the helplessness of the survivors, he added, “I worked on projects to mobilise millions of dollars for climate action so that those most vulnerable would be safe. Yet, this weekend’s floods have shown me that on the ground, absolutely nothing has changed.”
Sonia Awale
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